Trump and the 10% Global Tariff: Defying a Supreme Court Defeat

[00:00] Noah Feldman: From Neural Newscast, I'm Noah Feldman. [00:03] Noah Feldman: And I'm Thatcher Collins. [00:05] Noah Feldman: The legal landscape for American trade shifted dramatically today. [00:09] Noah Feldman: Following a major Supreme Court decision regarding presidential authority, [00:14] Noah Feldman: The court struck down a core component of the administration's trade policy, specifically [00:19] Noah Feldman: the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping tariffs. [00:25] Noah Feldman: This ruling effectively invalidated the reciprocal duties and drug trafficking-related tariffs [00:31] Noah Feldman: that have been a cornerstone of the White House economic strategy. [00:35] Thatcher Collins: The majority opinion in this 6-3 ruling was quite clear. [00:39] Thatcher Collins: The justices determined that the IEEPA does not actually authorize the president to impose tariffs. [00:46] Thatcher Collins: It's a significant rebuke, especially considering that the majority included two of the president's own nominees, [00:52] Thatcher Collins: Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett. [00:55] Thatcher Collins: During a White House briefing, Trump expressed sharp disappointment in the ruling, [00:59] Thatcher Collins: even going so far as to criticize the justices personally. [01:03] Noah Feldman: It's a heavy blow for the workforce initiatives we've been tracking, as the administration [01:08] Noah Feldman: argues these tariffs are essential for rebuilding the domestic manufacturing base. [01:13] Noah Feldman: Trump was adamant that he won't let this ruling slow down his agenda. [01:18] Noah Feldman: He insisted that he has the right to set tariffs and doesn't need to work with the legislative [01:24] Noah Feldman: branch to do so. [01:25] Noah Feldman: This set the stage for a very rapid policy pivot that we saw just hours later. [01:30] Noah Feldman: That pivot involves a new executive order that, Noah, the administration is using to effectively replace the struck-down duties. [01:38] Noah Feldman: Trump announced he is signing an order to impose a new 10% global tariff. [01:43] Noah Feldman: This time, he is invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. [01:47] Noah Feldman: Right. [01:48] Noah Feldman: It's a different legal mechanism entirely intended to bypass the limitations the Supreme Court just highlighted. [01:55] Noah Feldman: The use of Section 122 comes with some very specific constraints that the previous IE EPA tariffs didn't have to navigate. [02:04] Noah Feldman: For one, these new duties are legally limited to a 150-day window. [02:10] Noah Feldman: If the administration wants to extend them beyond that, they would need to get congressional approval. [02:15] Noah Feldman: Trump seemed dismissive of that time limit during the briefing, stating that the executive has [02:21] Noah Feldman: the right to do what it wants, but the law is quite specific on that duration. [02:26] Thatcher Collins: Noah, there's another technicality here. [02:28] Thatcher Collins: By statute, Section 122 tariffs must be non-discriminatory. [02:33] Thatcher Collins: This means the U.S. can't easily grant specific exemptions or breaks to certain trading [02:38] Thatcher Collins: partners while applying the rate to others. [02:40] Thatcher Collins: This is a significant change from the flexibility the White House enjoyed under the Emergency [02:45] Thatcher Collins: Powers Act. [02:46] Thatcher Collins: However, the administration is also launching several Section 301 investigations into unfair [02:52] Thatcher Collins: trade practices, which could eventually lead to higher, more targeted duties on top of [02:57] Thatcher Collins: this 10% baseline. [02:58] Noah Feldman: While the legal team maneuvers through these statutes, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant [03:03] Noah Feldman: is working to reassure the markets. [03:05] Noah Feldman: In a speech earlier today at the Economic Club of Dallas, he mentioned that using these alternative laws will keep tariff revenue virtually unchanged for 2026. [03:14] Noah Feldman: He was very firm that no one should expect the revenue to go down, despite the Supreme Court's intervention. [03:19] Noah Feldman: This suggests a very aggressive effort to layer different laws to maintain the current fiscal [03:26] Noah Feldman: trajectory. [03:26] Thatcher Collins: The immediate impact on international partners is going to be complex. [03:30] Thatcher Collins: For China, the White House indicates that these new tariffs will replace the invalidated [03:35] Thatcher Collins: IEEPA duties. [03:37] Thatcher Collins: When you combine the new 10% global tariff with the existing 25% duty that remains in [03:42] Thatcher Collins: effect, China is looking at a total rate of 35%. [03:47] Thatcher Collins: That's a massive number for any supply chain manager to factor into their 2026 projections. [03:52] Noah Feldman: That's your the situation with the European Union is even more interesting. [03:56] Noah Feldman: The EU had previously agreed to a 15% tariff as part of a trade deal with the US. [04:01] Noah Feldman: But because those tariffs were largely implemented under the now invalidated IEEPA, they've been struck down. [04:08] Noah Feldman: Since the new Section 122 tariff is currently set at 10% and must be non-discriminatory, [04:14] Noah Feldman: some of those countries might actually see a temporary reduction in their U.S. tariff rates. [04:19] Thatcher Collins: That creates a strange irony where a court ruling intended to limit the president's power [04:24] Thatcher Collins: might actually force a lower rate on some partners in the short term. [04:28] Thatcher Collins: But the administration is already looking at other tools. [04:31] Thatcher Collins: Jameson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, noted that more announcements are coming in the weeks ahead to ensure continuity in the trade program. [04:39] Thatcher Collins: They're clearly looking at every available statute to keep the pressure on. [04:43] Noah Feldman: For the domestic manufacturing sector, this volatility is the primary concern. [04:49] Noah Feldman: We've already seen small furniture retailers and other businesses expressing existential worry [04:54] Noah Feldman: about how these shifting rates will affect their inventory costs. [04:58] Noah Feldman: Even though the Supreme Court gave them a brief moment of hope by striking down the original [05:03] Noah Feldman: duties, the immediate replacement with a new global tariff means the high-cost environment [05:08] Noah Feldman: for imports isn't going away. [05:11] Thatcher Collins: I'm Noah Feldman. [05:12] Thatcher Collins: And I'm Thatcher Collins. [05:14] Thatcher Collins: Thank you for listening to Neural Newscast. Neural Newscast is AI-assisted, human-reviewed. [05:20] Thatcher Collins: View our AI transparency policy at neuralnewscast.com.